According to last update released by UNCTAD, global trade maintains strong momentum in 2025 despite ongoing uncertainty.
Global trade expanded by roughly $500 billion in the first half of 2025, defying volatility, shifting policies, and persistent geopolitical tensions. Momentum remained strong into the third quarter, though growth patterns continued to vary across regions and sectors.
Both goods and services trade recorded solid gains compared with the first quarter. Goods trade growth rose slightly from about 2% to 2.5% quarter over quarter, while services trade rebounded after contracting earlier in the year.
Manufacturing remained the key engine of global trade growth, led by the electronics sector. Robust demand for hybrid and electric vehicles further strengthened the automotive industry, reinforcing manufacturing’s central role in the current expansion phase.
According to UN Trade and Development’s nowcast, the upward trend continued into the third quarter, with goods expected to grow by around 2.5% quarter over quarter and services accelerating sharply to about 4%. On a rolling annual basis, growth remains strong—approximately 5% for goods and 6% for services.
Prices for traded goods edged higher in the second quarter, with preliminary estimates indicating a more pronounced increase in the third. While earlier gains in trade value were driven mainly by higher volumes, the latest data suggest that rising prices are now contributing to growth as well.
Developing economies were the primary drivers of second-quarter growth, supported by expanding South–South trade. In contrast, weak trade performance in the United States weighed on the global average.
Furthermore, after widening in recent quarters, global goods trade imbalances narrowed in the second quarter of 2025, largely reflecting shifts in U.S. trade policy.
Trade deficits increased in Japan, India, and the United Kingdom, while among surplus economies, China’s trade surplus declined only marginally despite a sharp reduction in its surplus with the United States. The European Union’s surplus also fell during the quarter.
Record levels are expected for 2025. Barring major disruptions in the final months of the year, global trade is on track to surpass its 2024 record high. Despite turbulence stemming from evolving U.S. trade policy, the broader global trade system has shown resilience, though uncertainty over future policy remains a key risk. Geopolitical instability continues to pose challenges, with ongoing conflicts threatening regional trade flows and raising concerns over energy and food security.